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The differential risk of cervical cancer in HPV vaccinated and unvaccinated women: A mathematical modelling study

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention Apr 14, 2021

Naslazi E, Hontelez JAC, Naber SK, et al. - A mathematical modelling study was conducted to explore the differential risk of cervical cancer in HPV vaccinated and unvaccinated women. In this study, STDSIM, an individual-based model of HPV transmission and control were used to calculate the HPV prevalence reduction over time, after the introduction of HPV vaccination. Researchers calculated relative HPV type-specific prevalence reduction compared to a no-vaccination counterfactual and then estimated the age-specific cervical cancer risk by vaccination status. Large cervical cancer risk differences were found between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. The model exhibits that the relative risk is higher in lower vaccine coverages, using the nonavalent vaccine, and when vaccinating females only. Vaccination-based screening needs serious consideration to avoid a disbalance in harms and benefits between vaccinated and unvaccinated women.

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