D’Journo XB, Boulate D, Fourdrain A, et al. - The International Esodata Study Group (IESG) risk prediction model was used in this study to stratify an individual patient's risk of death within 90 days of esophagectomy based on preoperative variables. Such findings suggest that this model can aid in the decision-making process when considering esophageal cancer surgery, as well as in informed consent.

• In total, 8,403 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.6 [9.0] years; 6641 [79.0%] male) were involved.

• The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0% (n = 164), while the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2% (n = 353).

• Development (n = 4,172) and validation (n = 4,231) cohorts were assigned at random.

• Age, gender, BMI, performance status, myocardial infarction, connective tissue disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, neoadjuvant treatment, and hospital volume were identified as weighted point variables in the multiple logistic regression model.

• The prognostic scores were divided into five risk categories: very low risk (score, ≥1; 90-day mortality, 1.8%), low risk (score, 0; 90-day mortality, 3.0%), medium risk (score, –1 to –2; 90-day mortality, 5.8%), high risk (score, −3 to −4: 90-day mortality, 8.9%), and very high risk (score, ≤−5; 90-day mortality, 18.2%).

• In the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, nonsignificance supported the model.

• In the development cohort, the discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.68, while in the validation cohort, it was 0.64.