Zhang Y, Fakhry C, D'Souza G, et al. - Current human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates will have a limited relationship with overall oropharynx cancer (OPC) incidence through 2045, according to the projections of this population-based age-period-cohort study, because older individuals who have not yet been vaccinated remain at high risk for OPC. However, the group at the lowest risk of diagnosis, young and middle-aged adults, should see a decrease in OPC incidence. Such findings anticipate a continued shift in the landscape of OPC to an older population.

• OPC incidence is expected to decrease in younger people (36-45 years of age: from 1.4 to 0.8 per 100,000 population; 46-55 years of age: from 8.7 to 7.2 per 100,000 population) but continues to rise in older people (70-83 years of age: from 16.8 to 29.0 per 100,000 population) between 2018 and 2045, based on current HPV vaccination rates.

• By 2045, the link between HPV vaccination and overall OPC incidence will be minor (no vaccination vs vaccination: 14.3 vs 13.8 per 100,000 population in 2045).

• By 2045, HPV vaccination is expected to reduce OPC incidence among people aged 36 to 45 (men: 48.1%; women: 42.5%) and 46 to 55 (men: 9.0%; women: 22.6%), but not among those aged 56 and up.

• Between 2018 and 2045, HPV vaccination will prevent a total of 6,334 OPC cases, with younger age (≤ 55 years) groups accounting for 88.8% of such cases.