Individual risk prediction for sight-threatening retinopathy of prematurity using birth characteristics
JAMA Ophthalmology Nov 14, 2019
Pivodic A, Hård AL, Löfqvist C, et al. - In this investigation involving infants born at gestational age less than 31 weeks, researchers created and validated an easy-to-use prediction model using only birth features and described a continuous hazard function for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) treatment. The prediction model incorporating only postnatal age, gestational age, sex, and birth weight provided a predictive ability for retinopathy of prematurity needing treatment that was comparable to current models requiring postnatal data (not always available) in this cohort study of 6,947 infants born at gestational age 24 to 30 weeks. Irrespective of the infants’ gestational age, the risk for retinopathy of prematurity needing treatment increased up to 12 weeks’ postnatal age. This investigation validated an individualized prediction model for infants born at 24 to 30 weeks of GA, allowing for early risk prediction for ROP treatment based on data on birth characteristics. The model is a generalizable, accessible online application with at least as good test statistics as other models requiring longitudinal neonatal information not always readily available to ophthalmologists.
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