Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, March-July 2020
JAMA Oct 27, 2020
Woolf SH, Chapman DA, Sabo RT, et al. - In a prior analysis, COVID-19 was cited in only 65% of excess deaths in the first weeks of the pandemic (March-April 2020); there was a sharp rise in deaths from non–COVID-19 causes (eg, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, heart disease) in 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths. Via this study, researchers sought to update through August 1, 2020, the estimate of excess deaths and investigate temporal correlations with state reopenings (lifting of coronavirus restrictions). For the 50 states and the District of Columbia, they obtained death data for 2014-2020 and population counts using the National Center for Health Statistics and US Census Bureau, respectively. Provisional, unweighted data released on September 9, 2020 were used to obtain death counts from March 1, 2020, through August 1, 2020. Analysis revealed remarkably consistent total US death counts from year to year. However, there was an increase in US deaths by 20% during March-July 2020. COVID-19 was documented to be causative in only 67% of these excess deaths. Some states relative to others had greater difficulty in containing community spread, causing protracted increases in excess deaths that extended into the summer. During COVID-19 surges, there was an increase in US deaths attributed to some noninfectious causes. Excess deaths because of causes other than COVID-19 could indicate deaths from undetermined or undocumented infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or deaths among uninfected individuals resulting from disruptions created by the pandemic.
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