Fu Z, Xi X, Zhang B, et al. - A time series model for predicting the seasonality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) was established and evaluated. In this study, patients with acute UGIB who were admitted to the Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center of Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2013 to December 2019, were assessed for the incidence trend of UGIB using seasonal decomposition method. Thereafter, researchers used exponential smoothing model and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) to create the model and forecast, respectively. Finally, selection of the exponential smoothing model with better fitting and prediction effect was made. An obvious seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of UGIB, with a peak in January and a trough in August. Observations revealed better prediction effects of the exponential smoothing model, which can yield prevention and treatment strategies for UGIB, and yield objective guidance for more medical staff in Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center during the peak period of UGIB.