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Development and validation of the Durham risk score for estimating suicide attempt risk: A prospective cohort analysis

PLoS Medicine Aug 11, 2021

Kimbrel NA, Beckham JC, Calhoun PS, et al. - The Durham Risk Score or DRS was developed and identified as a promising new tool that has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify individuals at risk for attempting suicide.

  • Three prospective cohort studies from the US (total sample size = 35,654 participants), including a large general population study and 2 smaller veteran cohorts were secondarily analyzed.

  • In both the combined development and validation cohorts, the risk score had a strong predictive value for future suicide attempts.

  • Among individuals in the top 15% of risk scores, 82% of prospective suicide attempts were reported, whereas 27% of these occurrences were described in individuals scoring in the top 1% of risk scores.

  • Good performance of the risk score was also recorded among important subgroups, including women, men, Black, White, Hispanic, veterans, lower-income individuals, younger adults, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer or questioning (LGBTQ) individuals.

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