Ziobrowski HN, Kennedy CJ, Ustun B, et al. - Researchers aimed at developing and validating a prediction tool based on emergency department (ED) reports after a motor vehicle collision to predict the patients who will develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depressive episode (MDE) 3 months after presenting to an ED because of a motor vehicle collision.

• A total of 1,003 patients evaluated in 28 US EDs were assessed in this cohort study.

• Criteria for 3-month PTSD or MDE were met by a total of 274 patients (weighted 26.6%). A machine learning model restricted to 30 variables was developed that produced a good validated area under the curve and calibration in predicting 3-month PTSD or MDE.

• The 30% of cases with highest predicted risk accounted for 65% of all 3-month PTSD or MDE.

• Per these results, identification of patients at high risk can be done in the ED for targeting if cost-effective preventive interventions are developed.