Wang L, Scott FI, Boursi B, et al. - Findings indicate the likely cost-effectiveness of a risk-tailored pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) early detection strategy targeting new-onset diabetes (NoD) patients with minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1.0-2.0%.

• Eight times higher risk of PDAC than expected has been documented in NoD cases.

• Using a Markov state-transition decision model, PDAC early detection strategies targeting NoD people ≥ 50 years old at various minimal predicted PDAC risk thresholds were compared with standard of care.

• Cost-effectiveness was evident of the early detection strategy targeting those with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1% (Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio [ICER] $116,911), at a willingness to pay (WTP) of $150,000/QALY (quality adjusted life year).

• At a WTP of $100,000/QALY, cost-effectiveness of the early detection strategy at the 2% risk threshold was evident (ICER $63,045).

• At a WTP of $150,000, preference was given to the early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold (30.6%), followed by the 0.5% risk threshold (20.4%) vs standard of care (1.7%), as corroborated in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

• At a WTP of $100,000, the favored strategy was early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold (27.3%) followed by the 2.0% risk threshold (22.8%) vs standard of care (2.0%).