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Bedside risk‐scoring model for predicting 6‐week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation for acute variceal bleeding

Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Feb 09, 2021

Kim JH, Park SW, Jung JH, et al. - Given that acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB, researchers sought to build a novel bedside risk‐scoring model to anticipate the 6‐week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB. Cox regression analysis was utilized to evaluate the association of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6‐week mortality risk following EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1,373). Five objective variables (use of beta‐blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, Child–Turcotte–Pugh class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were graded in the multivariate Cox regression analysis to produce a 12-point risk prediction model. The prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients is optimized by a simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization and helps to target and customize care interventions to reduce the mortality rate.

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