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Assessing lung cancer absolute risk trajectory based on a polygenic risk model

Cancer Research Jan 27, 2021

Hung RJ, Warkentin MT, Brhane Y, et al. - In the context of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening, researchers investigated if a patient's genetic background can be used for risk stratification. On the basis of 13,119 lung cancer patients and 10,008 controls with European ancestry in the International Lung Cancer Consortium, a polygenic risk score (PRS) was developed via 10-fold cross-validation with regularized penalized regression. Using the National Lung Screening Trial (N = 50,772 participants), the PRS distribution was simulated. In the validation set, the lung cancer odds ratio (ORs) was estimated to be 2.39 for individuals at the top decile of the PRS distribution vs those at bottom 10%. The OR per standard deviation of PRS increment was assessed to be 1.26 for overall lung cancer risk in the validation set. Experts noted that differential trajectories of 5-year and cumulative absolute risk were demonstrated by individuals at different PRS deciles, when considering absolute risks. Based on individual's genetic background, smoking status and family history, the age for reaching the LDCT screening recommendation threshold can vary by 4 to 8 years. Overall, experts concluded that the optimal lung cancer LDCT screening strategy may be informed by individual's genetic background.

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