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Prediction of functional decline in community-dwelling older persons in general practice: A cohort study

BMC Geriatrics Jun 19, 2018

van Blijswijk SCE, et al. - In this cohort study, embedded within the Integrated Systemic Care for Older People (ISCOPE)-trial, researchers investigated if registered information, questionnaire and general practitioner (GP)-opinion adequately predict functional decline in community-dwelling older persons (≥75 years) in general practice. Participants were examined for functional decline (death, nursing home admission, 10% with greatest functional decline). Comparison of the predictive value of pre-selected variables (age, sex, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, living situation; GPs’ opinion on vulnerability, number of domains with problems [ISCOPE-score]) with the area under the curves (AUC) for logistic regression models was carried out. They found that taking into account the GPs’ opinion and ISCOPE-score, a better prediction was attained with this prediction model based on readily available variables. GPs could identify older patients for further assessment with their clinical judgement.
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