Dório M, Hunter DJ, Collins JE, et al. - This study was undertaken to evaluate if baseline cartilage thickness and its longitudinal change are associated with incident widespread full-thickness cartilage loss (wsFTCL) in knee osteoarthritis, and whether there are optimal cut-off values for predicting wsFTCL. Applying quantitative magnetic resonance imaging data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort (N = 600 knees), central medial tibial (cMT) and femoral (cMF) cartilage were tested. At baseline and 12 months, cartilage thickness was assessed. wsFTCL was characterized semi-quantitatively (scores 2 and 3 from the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score) and its incidence at 24 months recorded. Via logistic regression, the odds of developing wsFTCL for baseline and for each 0.1 mm decrease in cartilage thickness was ascertained. Applying the minimal-p method and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (AUC), cut-off values were tested. The results display that lower baseline cMT and baseline/change (decrease) over 12 months in cMF cartilage thickness were correlated with incident, location-specific, wsFTCL at 24 months. The study suggests that optimal cut-off values were relatively low and of uncertain usefulness for prognosticating incident wsFTCL.