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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study

The Lancet Feb 10, 2020

Wu JT, et al. – Researchers estimated the size of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic in Wuhan, China based on the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China. They also forecasted the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, taking into consideration social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions. Between December 31, 2019, and January 28, 2020, researchers analyzed data on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally (known days of symptom onset from December 25, 2019, to January 19, 2020) to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from December 1, 2019, to January 25, 2020. According to their analysis, other major Chinese cities are likely sustaining localized outbreaks, given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan. Unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately, large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicenters. Because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases—and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions—independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally may be inevitable. For quick deployment globally, preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied.

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