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Assessment of the potential of vaccination to combat antibiotic resistance in gonorrhea: A modeling analysis to determine preferred product characteristics

Clinical Infectious Diseases Jan 16, 2020

Whittles LK, et al. - In view of reports suggesting the partial protective effect of MeNZB and Bexsero meningococcal vaccines against gonorrhea, an interest in the gonococcal vaccine is renewed, and several candidates are in development. Researchers here investigated vaccination’s potential impact, and the probability of achieving WHO’s target 90% reduction in gonorrhea incidence 2016-2030, by comparing realistic vaccination strategies under a range of scenarios of vaccine efficacy and duration of protection, and the emergence of extensively-resistant gonorrhea. Incorporating asymptomatic and symptomatic infection and heterogeneous sexual behavior in men-who-have-sex-with-men, a stochastic transmission-dynamic model was developed. The model was fitted to gonorrhea incidence in 2008-17 using particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and then Bayesian forecasting was used to examine an extensive range of scenarios. Outcomes suggest that a substantial reduction in gonorrhea incidence could be achieved with even a partially-protective vaccine, delivered through a realistic targeting strategy, despite antibiotic resistance. A vaccine yielding 31% protection (as estimated for MeNZB) for 2-4 years could decrease incidence in 2030 by 45% in the worst-case scenario, and by 75% if > 70% of resistant gonorrhea remains treatable.
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