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Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004–2025

BMC Public Health Jul 31, 2019

Zaheer S, Shah N, Maqbool SA, et al. - Using two statistical methods—the functional time series models and the log-linear regression model—researchers analyzed earlier trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004–2015), and estimated the future volume of breast cancer cases in Karachi through the year 2025. Among post-menopausal women aged 55-59, a more rapidly rising incidence of breast cancer was observed. On the other hand, women in the youngest age group (15–29 years) demonstrated a stable increase in incidence. Specifically, the total breast cancer incidence was estimated to increase from about 23.1% in 2020 to 60.7% in 2025. Cases of breast cancer diagnosed in younger women aged 30–34 years was calculated to increase from 70.7% to 130.6% in 2020 and 2025 relative to 2015, according to the researchers.

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