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A comparison of scoring systems for predicting short- and long-term survival after trauma in older adults

Academic Emergency Medicine Mar 22, 2019

Meagher AD, et al. – Via an empirically derived scoring system developed from available data, researchers identified injured older adults at highest risk for 30-day mortality. They also compared their scoring system with current prognostic scoring systems. The study sample included 4,849 injured adults aged ≥ 65 years. Patients were transported by 44 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to 49 emergency departments in Oregon and Washington state from the beginning of 2011 through the end of 2011, with follow-up through the end of 2012. The new risk score—the Geriatric Trauma Risk Indicator (GTRI)—was developed via binary recursive partitioning using a primary outcome of 30-day mortality. Death was reported in 4.8% patients within 30 days and 21.5% patients within 1 year. Death within 30 days was more frequent among older, injured adults transported by EMS to a large variety of trauma and non-trauma hospitals if they required emergent airway management or have a higher comorbidity burden. The GTRI had higher specificity vs other risk measures and held sensitivity constantly near 90%, despite a lower AUROC. Compared with using traditional scores, such as the injury severity score, using the geriatric trauma outcome score II or the GTRI may better for identifying high-risk older adults.

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