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Prediction of dementia risk in low-income and middle-income countries (the 10/66 Study): An independent external validation of existing models

The Lancet Global Health Mar 23, 2020

Stephan BCM, Pakpahan E, Siervo M, et al. - This investigation draws on data from 10/66 Study to determine if dementia prediction models developed in high-income countries (HICs) are applicable to low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). People aged 65 years or older and without dementia at baseline were chosen from China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. Participants in the study were 11,143 people without baseline dementia and with available follow-up data. All models exhibited good calibration, particularly at low and intermediate levels of predicted risk. According to findings, not all models of dementia prediction developed in HICs can be simply extrapolated to LMICs. Further work is needed to define what number and which combination of risk variables is best suited to predict the risk of dementia in LMICs. However, well-transported models could be used instantly for dementia prevention research and targeted risk reduction in LMICs.

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