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A new comprehensive colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating family history, personal characteristics, and environmental factors

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention Feb 29, 2020

Zheng Y, Hua X, Win AK, et al. - Given that decreasing colorectal cancer incidence as well as mortality via early detection would enhance efficacy if targeted, researchers attempted to construct a colorectal cancer risk prediction model including personal, family, genetic, and environmental risk factors to improve prevention. They calculated a familial risk profile (FRP) and built risk models, incorporating individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer family history (FH), and colorectal cancer risk factors obtained at enrollment utilizing population-based 4,445 colorectal cancer cases and 3,967 controls selected by the Colon Cancer Family Registry Cohort (CCFRC). To obtain validation for models, they utilized CCFRC follow-up data for 12,052 population-based and 5,584 clinic-based relatives without cancer history at the selection. For population-based relatives, the E/O (expected/observed rate ratio) for FRP models were reported to be 1.04 for men and 0.86 for women, and these values for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 and 1.04 for men and for women, respectively. For FRP models, the age-adjusted AUCs were 0.69 for men and 0.70 for women for population-based relatives, and these respective values were 0.77 and 0.68 for clinic-based relatives. Findings revealed good calibration of both models. Relative to the FH-based model, better risk stratification and risk discrimination were achieved with the FRP-based model.
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