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Prediction of recidivism in a long-term follow-up of forensic psychiatric patients: Incremental effects of neuroimaging data

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases May 24, 2019

Delfin C, et al. - In this study, the predictive value of neuroimaging data for recidivism was investigated by examining whether an incremental increase in predictive performance over traditional risk factors could be achieved with the inclusion of resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements. They included 44 forensic psychiatric patients who underwent single-photon emission computed tomography neuroimaging and clinical psychiatric assessment during a court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigation in a long-term (ten-year average time at risk) follow-up. As per findings, the inclusion of neuroimaging data in the extended model led to an improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from .69 to .81, in accuracy from .64 to .82 and in the scaled Brier score from .08 to .25. This supports the inclusion of neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients.

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