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Estimates of case-fatality ratios of measles in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and modelling analysis

The Lancet Global Health Mar 20, 2019

Portnoy A, et al. - Researchers performed a literature review to find studies investigating measles cases and deaths in low-income and middle-income countries in all age groups from 1980 to 2016 to update the estimations of case-fatality ratios for measles. In addition, they sought to develop a prediction model to estimate case-fatality ratios across heterogeneous groupings and to project future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030. Analyzing 124 peer-reviewed journal articles, they identified a mean case-fatality ratio of 2.2% in 1990-2015 using a log-linear prediction model. They noted the mean case-fatality ratio of 1.5% (0.5–3.1) in community-based settings vs 2.9% (0.9-6.0) in hospital-based settings. In 2016–2030, the mean projected case-fatality ratio of 1.3% (0.4-3.7).

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